2020

I'm not Hugh Downs but welcome to 2020. The Democratic field is forming. Sunday in Oakland, California Kamala Harris officially kicked off her campaign with an eloquently delivered speech to a crowd of 20,000 people. Harris is a tough, driven politician who will be a formidable opponent on the campaign trail. As to the speech, it had all the right notes, but we've heard it all before. You may call that cynical, I call it a logical command of fact and political campaign history, yeah, try putting that on a bumper sticker.

It is a positive step forward to see so many women running and perhaps more to come. The Hill has reported that even Hillary Clinton is not ruling out another run. That one's causing some people in the Democratic Party to set their hair on fire. I say if she wants to run go for it but as an observer I would offer two things. The first is she probably won't run and the second is she wouldn't get the nomination.

This process is just getting started and the number of candidates will grow substantially. Joe Biden will hit the ground running hard and won't have to introduce himself to the country, neither will Bernie Sanders. Elizabeth Warren has already hired top professionals to serve her campaign and she has thrown down the gauntlet on billionaires funding candidates or funding their own run. The last part is a shot across the bow of Michael Bloomberg and Tom Steyer. Bloomberg is extremely well known while Steyer is not, except for his impeach Trump commercials.

Bloomberg is an individual I don't much care for. He was a Democrat, then a Republican, then an Independent all in the span of being Mayor of New York. He is whatever he needs to be to get elected and adheres to one constant political philosophy, which is the micromanagement of the personal habits of human beings. When he hit the term limit wall for Mayor, he used his influence to get the City Council to change the law so he could seek a third term, which he won. In 2008 he seriously considered an Independent run for President and created a bit of a movement with online petitions to draft him. In the end he didn't run because the data was clear, in spite of the fact that he could throw billions of his own money at the campaign, he couldn't win. Now he's a Democrat and considering throwing those billions around again. The data will be the same Mr. Bloomberg, you can't win, not the nomination or the Presidency. You are perceived as a condescending elitist that believes the masses are too stupid to understand what's best for them.

Tom Steyer made his billions as a hedge fund manager. Those three words will sink him like a boulder but he should do whatever he wants. He has also said he won't support any candidate that is not pro impeachment of Donald Trump. Okay.

Speaking of billionaires, Starbucks founder Howard Schultz has announced he is considering a run for President as a centrist independent. Bloomberg was quick to point out that an Independent run won't succeed. All sides have pounced on Schultz so let me add my touch. Corporate C.E.O.' s do not necessarily make good President's (is that too subtle?). Bottom line Howard, the executive team you put in place before you retired nearly wrecked your company and you had to come out of retirement to save it. Poor judgement I'd say. Howard, stick to selling your overroasted coffee and stale institutional snacks at obscene prices and keep making billions, you are not the leader we're looking for and just because you're bored is not a justification for fucking up a perfectly fucked up system. 

Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Indiana is running for the Democratic nomination. He is 37 years old, a graduate of Harvard and a Rhodes Scholar. He is also a veteran of the war in Afghanistan. He is married and came out during his campaign for re-election and won with 80% of the vote because he saved South Bend. He also ran for the D.N.C. Chairman position in 2017 but the party went with Tom Perez an establishment stalwart. You of course knew all this, right? An out gay man running for President in a major party is big news but how much mainstream media have you seen covering this? When he gives his major kickoff speech will the cable news channel cover it in full like they did with Kamala Harris or will it be buried on C-Span? Did you know he's not the first openly gay man to seek a major party nomination for President? Fred Karger ran for the Republican nomination in 2012, remember him? Me neither, because he was marginalized and ignored.

Don't forget the Republicans and rumors of potential challengers to Trump. It's certainly possible, it's been done three times in the modern era. Reagan in '76, Kennedy in '80 and Buchanan in '92. I wrote about this Trump challenge in Kane's Realm and for brevity, it will fail.

It's just getting started and consider this, maybe Biden and Sanders don't run. Think about it.